Mijas Las Lagunas 1–2 Málaga II: Result & Stats

Mijas Las Lagunas

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Málaga II

5/1/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 32Ciudad Deportiva Las Lagunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mijas Las Lagunas45%

×Draw27%

Málaga II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mijas Las LagunasExpected goals in this matchMálaga II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.02

Mijas Las Lagunas

1.36

Málaga II

1.02

Mijas Las Lagunas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 92 away

1.62

creates per match

1.35

0.68

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Mijas Las Lagunas

1.62

Málaga II

1.35

allows per match

Mijas Las Lagunas

0.68

Málaga II

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mijas Las Lagunas+0.00on par

Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mijas Las Lagunas ↓

Málaga II →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mijas Las Lagunas or draw

72%

Mijas Las Lagunas or Málaga II

73%

Draw or Málaga II

55%

Winning margin

Mijas Las Lagunas wins by 2+

21%

Málaga II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mijas Las Lagunas 1+ goals

74%

Mijas Las Lagunas 2+ goals

39%

Mijas Las Lagunas 3+ goals

16%

Málaga II 1+ goals

64%

Málaga II 2+ goals

27%

Málaga II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mijas Las Lagunas (draw refunded)

61%

Málaga II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mijas Las Lagunas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mijas Las Lagunas attack 1.62 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Mijas Las Lagunas defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mijas Las Lagunas scores more

45%

level

27%

Málaga II scores more

28%

Mijas Las Lagunas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mijas Las Lagunas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mijas Las Lagunas vs Málaga II

Málaga II beat Mijas Las Lagunas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Las Lagunas in Las Lagunas de Mijas.

Mijas Las Lagunas vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mijas Las Lagunas vs Málaga II