Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Málaga II vs Mijas Las Lagunas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Málaga II
Málaga II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mijas Las Lagunas
Mijas Las Lagunas
12/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Ciudad Deportiva MCF Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Málaga II50%
×Draw26%
Mijas Las Lagunas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Málaga II
1.54
Mijas Las Lagunas
0.99

Málaga II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 34 away

creates per match

Málaga II
2.03
Mijas Las Lagunas
1.29

allows per match

Málaga II
0.69
Mijas Las Lagunas
1.06

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par
Mijas Las Lagunas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Mijas Las Lagunas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw
76%
Málaga II or Mijas Las Lagunas
74%
Draw or Mijas Las Lagunas
50%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+
26%
Mijas Las Lagunas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals
79%
Málaga II 2+ goals
45%
Málaga II 3+ goals
20%
Mijas Las Lagunas 1+ goals
63%
Mijas Las Lagunas 2+ goals
26%
Mijas Las Lagunas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)
67%
Mijas Las Lagunas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Mijas Las Lagunas away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Mijas Las Lagunas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.54

Mijas Las Lagunas attack 1.29 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Málaga II scores more
50%
level
26%
Mijas Las Lagunas scores more
24%

Málaga II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Málaga II 1 – 0 Mijas Las Lagunas

Málaga II beat Mijas Las Lagunas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva MCF Campo 1 in Málaga.