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Mijas Las Lagunas vs El Ejido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Mijas Las Lagunas
Mijas Las Lagunas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Ejido
El Ejido
2/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 22Ciudad Deportiva Las Lagunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mijas Las Lagunas51%
×Draw26%
El Ejido23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mijas Las Lagunas
1.52
El Ejido
0.92

Mijas Las Lagunas creates 65% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Mijas Las Lagunas
1.62
El Ejido
1.16

allows per match

Mijas Las Lagunas
0.68
El Ejido
1.43

finishing

Mijas Las Lagunas+0.00on par
El Ejido+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mijas Las Lagunas ↓

El Ejido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mijas Las Lagunas or draw
77%
Mijas Las Lagunas or El Ejido
74%
Draw or El Ejido
49%

Winning margin

Mijas Las Lagunas wins by 2+
26%
El Ejido wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mijas Las Lagunas 1+ goals
78%
Mijas Las Lagunas 2+ goals
45%
Mijas Las Lagunas 3+ goals
20%
El Ejido 1+ goals
60%
El Ejido 2+ goals
23%
El Ejido 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mijas Las Lagunas (draw refunded)
69%
El Ejido (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mijas Las Lagunas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

El Ejido away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mijas Las Lagunas attack 1.62 + El Ejido defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

El Ejido attack 1.16 + Mijas Las Lagunas defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mijas Las Lagunas scores more
51%
level
26%
El Ejido scores more
23%

Mijas Las Lagunas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mijas Las Lagunas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mijas Las Lagunas 0 – 0 El Ejido

Mijas Las Lagunas and El Ejido drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Las Lagunas in Las Lagunas de Mijas.