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El Ejido vs Mijas Las Lagunas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Ejido
El Ejido
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mijas Las Lagunas
Mijas Las Lagunas
10/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Campo Municipal Santa María del Águila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

El Ejido31%
×Draw27%
Mijas Las Lagunas41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Ejido
1.13
Mijas Las Lagunas
1.34

Mijas Las Lagunas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 34 away

creates per match

El Ejido
1.19
Mijas Las Lagunas
1.29

allows per match

El Ejido
1.40
Mijas Las Lagunas
1.06

finishing

El Ejido+0.00on par
Mijas Las Lagunas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Ejido ↓

Mijas Las Lagunas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

El Ejido or draw
59%
El Ejido or Mijas Las Lagunas
73%
Draw or Mijas Las Lagunas
69%

Winning margin

El Ejido wins by 2+
13%
Mijas Las Lagunas wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

El Ejido 1+ goals
68%
El Ejido 2+ goals
31%
El Ejido 3+ goals
11%
Mijas Las Lagunas 1+ goals
74%
Mijas Las Lagunas 2+ goals
39%
Mijas Las Lagunas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

El Ejido (draw refunded)
43%
Mijas Las Lagunas (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Ejido at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

Mijas Las Lagunas away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Ejido attack 1.19 + Mijas Las Lagunas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Mijas Las Lagunas attack 1.29 + El Ejido defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

El Ejido scores more
31%
level
27%
Mijas Las Lagunas scores more
41%

Mijas Las Lagunas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mijas Las Lagunas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: El Ejido 1–1 Mijas Las Lagunas

El Ejido and Mijas Las Lagunas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Santa María del Águila in Santa María del Águila.