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Mihajlovac vs Mačva 1929 — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
FT
0 – 2
Mačva 1929
Mačva 1929
5/21/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 27Stadion FK Seljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mihajlovac35%
×Draw26%
Mačva 192939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mihajlovac
1.29
Mačva 1929
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 56 away

creates per match

Mihajlovac
1.20
Mačva 1929
1.16

allows per match

Mihajlovac
1.60
Mačva 1929
1.39

finishing

Mihajlovac+0.00on par
Mačva 1929+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mihajlovac ↓

Mačva 1929 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mihajlovac or draw
61%
Mihajlovac or Mačva 1929
74%
Draw or Mačva 1929
65%

Winning margin

Mihajlovac wins by 2+
15%
Mačva 1929 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mihajlovac 1+ goals
72%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
37%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
14%
Mačva 1929 1+ goals
75%
Mačva 1929 2+ goals
40%
Mačva 1929 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
47%
Mačva 1929 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mihajlovac at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Mačva 1929 away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mihajlovac attack 1.20 + Mačva 1929 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mačva 1929 attack 1.16 + Mihajlovac defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mihajlovac scores more
35%
level
26%
Mačva 1929 scores more
39%

Mačva 1929 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mačva 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Mihajlovac 0–2 Mačva 1929

Mačva 1929 beat Mihajlovac 2-0 in Srpska Liga - West on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Seljak in Mihajlovac.