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Mačva 1929 vs Mihajlovac — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mačva 1929
Mačva 1929
FT
0 – 0
Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
10/29/2022Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 12Stadion FK Mačva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mačva 192957%
×Draw25%
Mihajlovac18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mačva 1929
1.61
Mihajlovac
0.77

Mačva 1929 creates 109% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mačva 1929
1.26
Mihajlovac
0.60

allows per match

Mačva 1929
0.93
Mihajlovac
1.97

finishing

Mačva 1929+0.00on par
Mihajlovac+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mačva 1929 ↓

Mihajlovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mačva 1929 or draw
82%
Mačva 1929 or Mihajlovac
75%
Draw or Mihajlovac
43%

Winning margin

Mačva 1929 wins by 2+
31%
Mihajlovac wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mačva 1929 1+ goals
80%
Mačva 1929 2+ goals
48%
Mačva 1929 3+ goals
22%
Mihajlovac 1+ goals
54%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
18%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mačva 1929 (draw refunded)
76%
Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mačva 1929 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.93 · 57 matches

Mihajlovac away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mačva 1929 attack 1.26 + Mihajlovac defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mihajlovac attack 0.60 + Mačva 1929 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mačva 1929 scores more
57%
level
25%
Mihajlovac scores more
18%

Mačva 1929 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mačva 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Mačva 1929 0–0 Mihajlovac

Mačva 1929 and Mihajlovac drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - West on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mačva in Bogatic.