Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mihajlovac vs FAP — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
FT
0 – 0
FAP
FAP
6/3/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 29Stadion FK Seljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mihajlovac26%
×Draw25%
FAP49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mihajlovac
1.05
FAP
1.56

FAP creates 49% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mihajlovac
1.20
FAP
1.51

allows per match

Mihajlovac
1.60
FAP
0.91

finishing

Mihajlovac+0.00on par
FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mihajlovac ↓

FAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mihajlovac or draw
51%
Mihajlovac or FAP
75%
Draw or FAP
74%

Winning margin

Mihajlovac wins by 2+
10%
FAP wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Mihajlovac 1+ goals
65%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
28%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
9%
FAP 1+ goals
79%
FAP 2+ goals
46%
FAP 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
34%
FAP (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mihajlovac at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

FAP away — creates 1.51, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mihajlovac attack 1.20 + FAP defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

FAP attack 1.51 + Mihajlovac defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mihajlovac scores more
26%
level
25%
FAP scores more
49%

FAP at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mihajlovac vs FAP

Mihajlovac and FAP drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - West on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Seljak in Mihajlovac.