FAP 3–0 Mihajlovac: Result & Stats

FAP

FT

3 – 0

Mihajlovac

11/12/2022

Srpska Liga - West · West - 14Stadion Priboj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FAP72%

×Draw19%

Mihajlovac9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAPExpected goals in this matchMihajlovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.59

FAP

2.08

Mihajlovac

0.59

FAP creates 253% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

2.20

creates per match

0.60

0.58

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

FAP

2.20

Mihajlovac

0.60

allows per match

FAP

0.58

Mihajlovac

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAP+0.00on par

Mihajlovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Mihajlovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FAP or draw

91%

FAP or Mihajlovac

81%

Draw or Mihajlovac

28%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+

47%

Mihajlovac wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals

87%

FAP 2+ goals

61%

FAP 3+ goals

34%

Mihajlovac 1+ goals

45%

Mihajlovac 2+ goals

12%

Mihajlovac 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)

89%

Mihajlovac (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

Mihajlovac away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 2.20 + Mihajlovac defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.08

Mihajlovac attack 0.60 + FAP defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FAP scores more

72%

level

19%

Mihajlovac scores more

9%

FAP at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff