Miguelense 4–0 Jacyobá: Result & Stats

Miguelense

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jacyobá

R. Gabriel Silva 85', 79'

V. Hugo Santos 71', 29'

8/31/2025

Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Ivson Ferreira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Miguelense72%

×Draw18%

Jacyobá10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiguelenseExpected goals in this matchJacyobá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

0.67

Miguelense

2.18

Jacyobá

0.67

Miguelense creates 225% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.36

creates per match

0.17

1.18

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Miguelense

1.36

Jacyobá

0.17

allows per match

Miguelense

1.18

Jacyobá

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miguelense+0.00on par

Jacyobá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miguelense ↓

Jacyobá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Miguelense or draw

90%

Miguelense or Jacyobá

82%

Draw or Jacyobá

28%

Winning margin

Miguelense wins by 2+

47%

Jacyobá wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Miguelense 1+ goals

89%

Miguelense 2+ goals

64%

Miguelense 3+ goals

37%

Jacyobá 1+ goals

49%

Jacyobá 2+ goals

15%

Jacyobá 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Miguelense (draw refunded)

88%

Jacyobá (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miguelense at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Jacyobá away — creates 0.17, concedes 3.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miguelense attack 1.36 + Jacyobá defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.18

Jacyobá attack 0.17 + Miguelense defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Miguelense scores more

72%

level

18%

Jacyobá scores more

10%

Miguelense at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Miguelense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

71'

79'

85'

Miguelense

Jacyobá

Manager: Josivaldo

Manager: Distefano