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Jacyobá vs Miguelense — Alagoano - 2 2024

Jacyobá
Jacyobá
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Miguelense
Miguelense
J. Santos 73'
4/25/2026Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · Group Stage - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jacyobá32%
×Draw26%
Miguelense42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacyobá
1.24
Miguelense
1.47

Miguelense creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Jacyobá
0.89
Miguelense
0.50

allows per match

Jacyobá
2.44
Miguelense
1.58

finishing

Jacyobá+0.00on par
Miguelense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacyobá ↓

Miguelense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jacyobá or draw
58%
Jacyobá or Miguelense
74%
Draw or Miguelense
68%

Winning margin

Jacyobá wins by 2+
13%
Miguelense wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Jacyobá 1+ goals
71%
Jacyobá 2+ goals
35%
Jacyobá 3+ goals
13%
Miguelense 1+ goals
77%
Miguelense 2+ goals
43%
Miguelense 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jacyobá (draw refunded)
43%
Miguelense (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacyobá at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Miguelense away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacyobá attack 0.89 + Miguelense defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.24

Miguelense attack 0.50 + Jacyobá defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jacyobá scores more
32%
level
26%
Miguelense scores more
42%

Miguelense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Miguelense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
J. Santos
Jacyobá
Miguelense
Distefano
Manager: Distefano
Josivaldo
Manager: Josivaldo

Alagoano - 2: Jacyobá 0–1 Miguelense

Miguelense beat Jacyobá 1-0 in Alagoano - 2 on April 25, 2026.

Goals: J. Santos (73').