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Migori Youth vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

Migori Youth
Migori Youth
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
5/11/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 32Migori Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Migori Youth51%
×Draw28%
Kibera Black Stars21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Migori Youth
1.33
Kibera Black Stars
0.73

Migori Youth creates 82% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 110 away

creates per match

Migori Youth
1.34
Kibera Black Stars
0.95

allows per match

Migori Youth
0.51
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

Migori Youth+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migori Youth ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Migori Youth or draw
79%
Migori Youth or Kibera Black Stars
72%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
49%

Winning margin

Migori Youth wins by 2+
24%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Migori Youth 1+ goals
74%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
38%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
15%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
52%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
17%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Migori Youth (draw refunded)
71%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migori Youth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.51 · 91 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migori Youth attack 1.34 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.95 + Migori Youth defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Migori Youth scores more
51%
level
28%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
21%

Migori Youth at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Migori Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Migori Youth vs Kibera Black Stars

Migori Youth and Kibera Black Stars drew 0-0 in Super League on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Migori Stadium in Migori.