Kibera Black Stars 1–0 Migori Youth: Result & Stats

Kibera Black Stars

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Migori Youth

12/17/2025

Super League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Kibera Black Stars47%

×Draw29%

Migori Youth24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kibera Black StarsExpected goals in this matchMigori Youth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.83

Kibera Black Stars

1.29

Migori Youth

0.83

Kibera Black Stars creates 55% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 91 away

1.33

creates per match

0.91

0.75

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars

1.33

Migori Youth

0.91

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars

0.75

Migori Youth

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Migori Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

Migori Youth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw

76%

Kibera Black Stars or Migori Youth

71%

Draw or Migori Youth

53%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+

22%

Migori Youth wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals

72%

Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals

37%

Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals

14%

Migori Youth 1+ goals

56%

Migori Youth 2+ goals

20%

Migori Youth 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)

66%

Migori Youth (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Migori Youth away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.33 + Migori Youth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Migori Youth attack 0.91 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more

47%

level

29%

Migori Youth scores more

24%

Kibera Black Stars at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff