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Migori Youth vs Kajiado — Super League 2018

Migori Youth
Migori Youth
FT
4 – 0
Kajiado
Kajiado
3/22/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Migori Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Migori Youth66%
×Draw21%
Kajiado13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Migori Youth
1.92
Kajiado
0.72

Migori Youth creates 167% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 35 away

creates per match

Migori Youth
1.34
Kajiado
0.94

allows per match

Migori Youth
0.51
Kajiado
2.51

finishing

Migori Youth+0.00on par
Kajiado+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migori Youth ↓

Kajiado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Migori Youth or draw
87%
Migori Youth or Kajiado
79%
Draw or Kajiado
34%

Winning margin

Migori Youth wins by 2+
40%
Kajiado wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Migori Youth 1+ goals
85%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
57%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
30%
Kajiado 1+ goals
51%
Kajiado 2+ goals
16%
Kajiado 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Migori Youth (draw refunded)
83%
Kajiado (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migori Youth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.51 · 91 matches

Kajiado away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migori Youth attack 1.34 + Kajiado defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kajiado attack 0.94 + Migori Youth defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Migori Youth scores more
66%
level
21%
Kajiado scores more
13%

Migori Youth at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Migori Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Migori Youth 4–0 Kajiado

Migori Youth beat Kajiado 4-0 in Super League on March 22, 2023.

The match was played at Migori Stadium in Migori.