Kajiado 1–0 Migori Youth: Result & Stats

Kajiado

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Migori Youth

4/20/2024

Super League · Round 28Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kajiado41%

×Draw27%

Migori Youth32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KajiadoExpected goals in this matchMigori Youth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.17

Kajiado

1.37

Migori Youth

1.17

Kajiado creates 17% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 91 away

1.49

creates per match

0.91

1.43

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Kajiado

1.49

Migori Youth

0.91

allows per match

Kajiado

1.43

Migori Youth

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kajiado+0.00on par

Migori Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kajiado ↓

Migori Youth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kajiado or draw

68%

Kajiado or Migori Youth

73%

Draw or Migori Youth

59%

Winning margin

Kajiado wins by 2+

19%

Migori Youth wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kajiado 1+ goals

75%

Kajiado 2+ goals

40%

Kajiado 3+ goals

16%

Migori Youth 1+ goals

69%

Migori Youth 2+ goals

33%

Migori Youth 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kajiado (draw refunded)

56%

Migori Youth (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kajiado at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Migori Youth away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kajiado attack 1.49 + Migori Youth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.37

Migori Youth attack 0.91 + Kajiado defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kajiado scores more

41%

level

27%

Migori Youth scores more

32%

Kajiado at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kajiado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff