Migori Youth 0–1 Dimba Patriots: Result & Stats

Migori Youth

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dimba Patriots

12/10/2023

Super League · Round 13Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Migori Youth53%

×Draw30%

Dimba Patriots17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Migori YouthExpected goals in this matchDimba Patriots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.59

Migori Youth

1.27

Dimba Patriots

0.59

Migori Youth creates 115% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 27 away

1.34

creates per match

0.67

0.51

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Migori Youth

1.34

Dimba Patriots

0.67

allows per match

Migori Youth

0.51

Dimba Patriots

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Migori Youth+0.00on par

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migori Youth ↓

Dimba Patriots →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Migori Youth or draw

83%

Migori Youth or Dimba Patriots

70%

Draw or Dimba Patriots

47%

Winning margin

Migori Youth wins by 2+

25%

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Migori Youth 1+ goals

72%

Migori Youth 2+ goals

36%

Migori Youth 3+ goals

14%

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals

45%

Dimba Patriots 2+ goals

12%

Dimba Patriots 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Migori Youth (draw refunded)

75%

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migori Youth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.51 · 91 matches

Dimba Patriots away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migori Youth attack 1.34 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dimba Patriots attack 0.67 + Migori Youth defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Migori Youth scores more

53%

level

30%

Dimba Patriots scores more

17%

Migori Youth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Migori Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff