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Dimba Patriots vs Migori Youth — Super League 2018

Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Migori Youth
Migori Youth
5/11/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots47%
×Draw26%
Migori Youth27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimba Patriots
1.47
Migori Youth
1.05

Dimba Patriots creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 91 away

creates per match

Dimba Patriots
1.69
Migori Youth
0.91

allows per match

Dimba Patriots
1.19
Migori Youth
1.25

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par
Migori Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

Migori Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw
73%
Dimba Patriots or Migori Youth
74%
Draw or Migori Youth
53%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
23%
Migori Youth wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
77%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
43%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
18%
Migori Youth 1+ goals
65%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
28%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
63%
Migori Youth (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Migori Youth away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + Migori Youth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.47

Migori Youth attack 0.91 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more
47%
level
26%
Migori Youth scores more
27%

Dimba Patriots at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dimba Patriots 2–1 Migori Youth

Dimba Patriots beat Migori Youth 2-1 in Super League on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at The Wolves Den in Olooloitikosh.