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Migori Youth vs Coastal Heroes — Super League 2018

Migori Youth
Migori Youth
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Coastal Heroes
Coastal Heroes
6/2/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31Migori Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Migori Youth63%
×Draw23%
Coastal Heroes14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Migori Youth
1.73
Coastal Heroes
0.66

Migori Youth creates 162% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 72 away

creates per match

Migori Youth
1.34
Coastal Heroes
0.81

allows per match

Migori Youth
0.51
Coastal Heroes
2.11

finishing

Migori Youth+0.00on par
Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migori Youth ↓

Coastal Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Migori Youth or draw
86%
Migori Youth or Coastal Heroes
77%
Draw or Coastal Heroes
37%

Winning margin

Migori Youth wins by 2+
36%
Coastal Heroes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Migori Youth 1+ goals
82%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
52%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
25%
Coastal Heroes 1+ goals
48%
Coastal Heroes 2+ goals
14%
Coastal Heroes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Migori Youth (draw refunded)
82%
Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migori Youth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.51 · 91 matches

Coastal Heroes away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migori Youth attack 1.34 + Coastal Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

Coastal Heroes attack 0.81 + Migori Youth defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Migori Youth scores more
63%
level
23%
Coastal Heroes scores more
14%

Migori Youth at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Migori Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Migori Youth vs Coastal Heroes

Migori Youth beat Coastal Heroes 2-0 in Super League on June 2, 2023.

The match was played at Migori Stadium in Migori.