Coastal Heroes 0–0 Migori Youth: Result & Stats

Coastal Heroes

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Migori Youth

5/4/2024

Super League · Round 30Serani Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Coastal Heroes47%

×Draw27%

Migori Youth26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coastal HeroesExpected goals in this matchMigori Youth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.98

Coastal Heroes

1.40

Migori Youth

0.98

Coastal Heroes creates 43% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 91 away

1.55

creates per match

0.91

1.04

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Coastal Heroes

1.55

Migori Youth

0.91

allows per match

Coastal Heroes

1.04

Migori Youth

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Migori Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Heroes ↓

Migori Youth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Coastal Heroes or draw

74%

Coastal Heroes or Migori Youth

73%

Draw or Migori Youth

53%

Winning margin

Coastal Heroes wins by 2+

22%

Migori Youth wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coastal Heroes 1+ goals

75%

Coastal Heroes 2+ goals

41%

Coastal Heroes 3+ goals

17%

Migori Youth 1+ goals

62%

Migori Youth 2+ goals

26%

Migori Youth 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)

64%

Migori Youth (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Heroes at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

Migori Youth away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Heroes attack 1.55 + Migori Youth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Migori Youth attack 0.91 + Coastal Heroes defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Coastal Heroes scores more

47%

level

27%

Migori Youth scores more

26%

Coastal Heroes at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Coastal Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coastal Heroes vs Migori Youth

Coastal Heroes and Migori Youth drew 0-0 in Super League on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Serani Sports Ground in Mombasa.

Coastal Heroes vs Migori Youth — Super League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Coastal Heroes vs Migori Youth