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Migjorn vs Mercadal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Migjorn
Migjorn
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mercadal
Mercadal
2/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 21Camp Municipal Los Nogales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Migjorn32%
×Draw26%
Mercadal43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Migjorn
1.23
Mercadal
1.48

Mercadal creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

creates per match

Migjorn
1.00
Mercadal
0.84

allows per match

Migjorn
2.12
Mercadal
1.45

finishing

Migjorn+0.00on par
Mercadal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migjorn ↓

Mercadal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Migjorn or draw
57%
Migjorn or Mercadal
74%
Draw or Mercadal
68%

Winning margin

Migjorn wins by 2+
13%
Mercadal wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Migjorn 1+ goals
71%
Migjorn 2+ goals
35%
Migjorn 3+ goals
13%
Mercadal 1+ goals
77%
Mercadal 2+ goals
43%
Mercadal 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Migjorn (draw refunded)
42%
Mercadal (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migjorn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Mercadal away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migjorn attack 1.00 + Mercadal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mercadal attack 0.84 + Migjorn defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Migjorn scores more
32%
level
26%
Mercadal scores more
43%

Mercadal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mercadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Migjorn 0–2 Mercadal

Mercadal beat Migjorn 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Camp Municipal Los Nogales in Menorca.