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Mercadal vs Migjorn — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Mercadal
Mercadal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Migjorn
Migjorn
9/29/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 4Estadio San Martì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mercadal70%
×Draw19%
Migjorn11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mercadal
2.04
Migjorn
0.64

Mercadal creates 219% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mercadal
1.38
Migjorn
0.29

allows per match

Mercadal
0.98
Migjorn
2.71

finishing

Mercadal+0.00on par
Migjorn+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mercadal ↓

Migjorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mercadal or draw
89%
Mercadal or Migjorn
81%
Draw or Migjorn
30%

Winning margin

Mercadal wins by 2+
45%
Migjorn wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mercadal 1+ goals
87%
Mercadal 2+ goals
60%
Mercadal 3+ goals
33%
Migjorn 1+ goals
47%
Migjorn 2+ goals
14%
Migjorn 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mercadal (draw refunded)
87%
Migjorn (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mercadal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Migjorn away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mercadal attack 1.38 + Migjorn defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.04

Migjorn attack 0.29 + Mercadal defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Mercadal scores more
70%
level
19%
Migjorn scores more
11%

Mercadal at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Mercadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Mercadal 2–0 Migjorn

Mercadal beat Migjorn 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Martì in Menorca.