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Migjorn vs Alcúdia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Migjorn
Migjorn
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Alcúdia
Alcúdia
11/16/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 11Camp Municipal Los Nogales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Migjorn35%
×Draw24%
Alcúdia41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Migjorn
1.51
Alcúdia
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

creates per match

Migjorn
1.00
Alcúdia
1.15

allows per match

Migjorn
2.12
Alcúdia
2.03

finishing

Migjorn+0.00on par
Alcúdia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migjorn ↓

Alcúdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Migjorn or draw
59%
Migjorn or Alcúdia
76%
Draw or Alcúdia
65%

Winning margin

Migjorn wins by 2+
17%
Alcúdia wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Migjorn 1+ goals
78%
Migjorn 2+ goals
44%
Migjorn 3+ goals
19%
Alcúdia 1+ goals
81%
Alcúdia 2+ goals
49%
Alcúdia 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Migjorn (draw refunded)
46%
Alcúdia (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migjorn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Alcúdia away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.03 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migjorn attack 1.00 + Alcúdia defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.51

Alcúdia attack 1.15 + Migjorn defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Migjorn scores more
35%
level
24%
Alcúdia scores more
41%

Alcúdia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alcúdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Migjorn 1–6 Alcúdia

Alcúdia beat Migjorn 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Municipal Los Nogales in Menorca.