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Alcúdia vs Migjorn — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Alcúdia
Alcúdia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Migjorn
Migjorn
3/29/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 28Estadi Municipal Els Arcs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Alcúdia69%
×Draw19%
Migjorn12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcúdia
2.08
Migjorn
0.72

Alcúdia creates 189% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

creates per match

Alcúdia
1.44
Migjorn
0.29

allows per match

Alcúdia
1.16
Migjorn
2.71

finishing

Alcúdia+0.00on par
Migjorn+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcúdia ↓

Migjorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alcúdia or draw
88%
Alcúdia or Migjorn
81%
Draw or Migjorn
31%

Winning margin

Alcúdia wins by 2+
44%
Migjorn wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Alcúdia 1+ goals
87%
Alcúdia 2+ goals
61%
Alcúdia 3+ goals
34%
Migjorn 1+ goals
51%
Migjorn 2+ goals
16%
Migjorn 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alcúdia (draw refunded)
85%
Migjorn (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcúdia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Migjorn away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcúdia attack 1.44 + Migjorn defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.08

Migjorn attack 0.29 + Alcúdia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Alcúdia scores more
69%
level
19%
Migjorn scores more
12%

Alcúdia at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Alcúdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Alcúdia 3–0 Migjorn

Alcúdia beat Migjorn 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Els Arcs in Mallorca.