Mighty Royals 3–1 Debibi United: Result & Stats

Mighty Royals

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Debibi United

12/14/2025

Division One League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mighty Royals45%

×Draw25%

Debibi United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mighty RoyalsExpected goals in this matchDebibi United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.27

Mighty Royals

1.61

Debibi United

1.27

Mighty Royals creates 27% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

2.29

creates per match

1.47

1.07

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Mighty Royals

2.29

Debibi United

1.47

allows per match

Mighty Royals

1.07

Debibi United

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mighty Royals+0.00on par

Debibi United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Royals ↓

Debibi United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mighty Royals or draw

70%

Mighty Royals or Debibi United

75%

Draw or Debibi United

55%

Winning margin

Mighty Royals wins by 2+

23%

Debibi United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mighty Royals 1+ goals

80%

Mighty Royals 2+ goals

48%

Mighty Royals 3+ goals

22%

Debibi United 1+ goals

72%

Debibi United 2+ goals

36%

Debibi United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mighty Royals (draw refunded)

60%

Debibi United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Royals at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Debibi United away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Royals attack 2.29 + Debibi United defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.61

Debibi United attack 1.47 + Mighty Royals defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mighty Royals scores more

45%

level

25%

Debibi United scores more

30%

Mighty Royals at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mighty Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff