Debibi United 3–0 Mighty Royals: Result & Stats

Debibi United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mighty Royals

1/24/2026

Division One League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Debibi United72%

×Draw17%

Mighty Royals11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Debibi UnitedExpected goals in this matchMighty Royals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.75

Debibi United

2.29

Mighty Royals

0.75

Debibi United creates 205% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.43

creates per match

1.07

0.43

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Debibi United

2.43

Mighty Royals

1.07

allows per match

Debibi United

0.43

Mighty Royals

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Debibi United+0.00on par

Mighty Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debibi United ↓

Mighty Royals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Debibi United or draw

89%

Debibi United or Mighty Royals

83%

Draw or Mighty Royals

28%

Winning margin

Debibi United wins by 2+

48%

Mighty Royals wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Debibi United 1+ goals

90%

Debibi United 2+ goals

66%

Debibi United 3+ goals

40%

Mighty Royals 1+ goals

53%

Mighty Royals 2+ goals

17%

Mighty Royals 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Debibi United (draw refunded)

87%

Mighty Royals (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debibi United at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.43 · 14 matches

Mighty Royals away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debibi United attack 2.43 + Mighty Royals defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.29

Mighty Royals attack 1.07 + Debibi United defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Debibi United scores more

72%

level

17%

Mighty Royals scores more

11%

Debibi United at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Debibi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff