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Mighty Royals vs Berekum Arsenal — Division One League 2025

Mighty Royals
Mighty Royals
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Berekum Arsenal
Berekum Arsenal
2/15/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mighty Royals68%
×Draw18%
Berekum Arsenal14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Royals
2.46
Berekum Arsenal
1.04

Mighty Royals creates 137% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mighty Royals
2.29
Berekum Arsenal
1.00

allows per match

Mighty Royals
1.07
Berekum Arsenal
2.62

finishing

Mighty Royals+0.00on par
Berekum Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Royals ↓

Berekum Arsenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Mighty Royals or draw
86%
Mighty Royals or Berekum Arsenal
82%
Draw or Berekum Arsenal
32%

Winning margin

Mighty Royals wins by 2+
46%
Berekum Arsenal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mighty Royals 1+ goals
91%
Mighty Royals 2+ goals
70%
Mighty Royals 3+ goals
44%
Berekum Arsenal 1+ goals
65%
Berekum Arsenal 2+ goals
28%
Berekum Arsenal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mighty Royals (draw refunded)
83%
Berekum Arsenal (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Royals at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Berekum Arsenal away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Royals attack 2.29 + Berekum Arsenal defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.46

Berekum Arsenal attack 1.00 + Mighty Royals defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Mighty Royals scores more
68%
level
18%
Berekum Arsenal scores more
14%

Mighty Royals at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Mighty Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mighty Royals vs Berekum Arsenal

Mighty Royals and Berekum Arsenal drew 3-3 in Division One League on February 15, 2026.