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Berekum Arsenal vs Mighty Royals — Division One League 2025

Berekum Arsenal
Berekum Arsenal
FT
5 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mighty Royals
Mighty Royals
12/26/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Berekum Arsenal57%
×Draw21%
Mighty Royals22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berekum Arsenal
2.10
Mighty Royals
1.25

Berekum Arsenal creates 68% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Berekum Arsenal
2.07
Mighty Royals
1.07

allows per match

Berekum Arsenal
1.43
Mighty Royals
2.14

finishing

Berekum Arsenal+0.00on par
Mighty Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Arsenal ↓

Mighty Royals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Berekum Arsenal or draw
78%
Berekum Arsenal or Mighty Royals
79%
Draw or Mighty Royals
43%

Winning margin

Berekum Arsenal wins by 2+
34%
Mighty Royals wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Berekum Arsenal 1+ goals
88%
Berekum Arsenal 2+ goals
62%
Berekum Arsenal 3+ goals
35%
Mighty Royals 1+ goals
71%
Mighty Royals 2+ goals
36%
Mighty Royals 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Berekum Arsenal (draw refunded)
72%
Mighty Royals (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Arsenal at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Mighty Royals away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Arsenal attack 2.07 + Mighty Royals defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.10

Mighty Royals attack 1.07 + Berekum Arsenal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Berekum Arsenal scores more
57%
level
21%
Mighty Royals scores more
22%

Berekum Arsenal at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Berekum Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berekum Arsenal vs Mighty Royals

Berekum Arsenal beat Mighty Royals 5-0 in Division One League on December 26, 2025.