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Mighty Barrolle vs Heaven Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 2
Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
10/16/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 4Doris Williams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mighty Barrolle39%
×Draw23%
Heaven Eleven38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Barrolle
1.62
Heaven Eleven
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

creates per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.74
Heaven Eleven
1.55

allows per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.66
Heaven Eleven
1.50

finishing

Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par
Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Barrolle ↓

Heaven Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mighty Barrolle or draw
62%
Mighty Barrolle or Heaven Eleven
77%
Draw or Heaven Eleven
61%

Winning margin

Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
19%
Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
80%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
48%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
22%
Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
80%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
47%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
51%
Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Barrolle at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Heaven Eleven away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.74 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.62

Heaven Eleven attack 1.55 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mighty Barrolle scores more
39%
level
23%
Heaven Eleven scores more
38%

Mighty Barrolle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mighty Barrolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Mighty Barrolle 0–7 Heaven Eleven

Heaven Eleven beat Mighty Barrolle 7-0 in LFA First Division on October 16, 2024.

The match was played at Doris Williams Stadium in Buchanan.