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Heaven Eleven vs Mighty Barrolle — LFA First Division 2020

Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
2/29/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 19Samuel Kanyon Doe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Heaven Eleven41%
×Draw24%
Mighty Barrolle34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heaven Eleven
1.56
Mighty Barrolle
1.40

Heaven Eleven creates 11% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 61 away

creates per match

Heaven Eleven
1.72
Mighty Barrolle
1.48

allows per match

Heaven Eleven
1.31
Mighty Barrolle
1.41

finishing

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par
Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heaven Eleven ↓

Mighty Barrolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Heaven Eleven or draw
66%
Heaven Eleven or Mighty Barrolle
76%
Draw or Mighty Barrolle
59%

Winning margin

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
20%
Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
79%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
46%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
21%
Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
75%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
41%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
55%
Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heaven Eleven at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Mighty Barrolle away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heaven Eleven attack 1.72 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.48 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Heaven Eleven scores more
41%
level
24%
Mighty Barrolle scores more
34%

Heaven Eleven at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heaven Eleven vs Mighty Barrolle

Heaven Eleven beat Mighty Barrolle 5-1 in LFA First Division on February 29, 2024.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Stadium in Monrovia.