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Mighty Barrolle vs Fassell — LFA First Division 2020

Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Fassell
Fassell
1/5/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 14Doris Williams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mighty Barrolle26%
×Draw23%
Fassell50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Barrolle
1.21
Fassell
1.77

Fassell creates 46% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 28 away

creates per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.74
Fassell
1.89

allows per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.66
Fassell
0.68

finishing

Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par
Fassell+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Barrolle ↓

Fassell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mighty Barrolle or draw
50%
Mighty Barrolle or Fassell
77%
Draw or Fassell
74%

Winning margin

Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
11%
Fassell wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
70%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
34%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
12%
Fassell 1+ goals
83%
Fassell 2+ goals
53%
Fassell 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
34%
Fassell (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Barrolle at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Fassell away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.74 + Fassell defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.21

Fassell attack 1.89 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mighty Barrolle scores more
26%
level
23%
Fassell scores more
50%

Fassell at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fassell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Mighty Barrolle 4–3 Fassell

Mighty Barrolle beat Fassell 4-3 in LFA First Division on January 5, 2025.

The match was played at Doris Williams Stadium in Buchanan.