Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fassell vs Mighty Barrolle — LFA First Division 2020

Fassell
Fassell
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
M. Yallah 90+5'
Robin 90+2'
A. Damagyie 78'
D. Kollie 73', 53'
T. Sackor 6'
12/8/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 1Doris Williams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Fassell47%
×Draw26%
Mighty Barrolle27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fassell
1.53
Mighty Barrolle
1.10

Fassell creates 39% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 61 away

creates per match

Fassell
1.65
Mighty Barrolle
1.48

allows per match

Fassell
0.73
Mighty Barrolle
1.41

finishing

Fassell+0.00on par
Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fassell ↓

Mighty Barrolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fassell or draw
73%
Fassell or Mighty Barrolle
74%
Draw or Mighty Barrolle
53%

Winning margin

Fassell wins by 2+
24%
Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fassell 1+ goals
78%
Fassell 2+ goals
45%
Fassell 3+ goals
20%
Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
67%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
30%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fassell (draw refunded)
63%
Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fassell at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Mighty Barrolle away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fassell attack 1.65 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.48 + Fassell defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fassell scores more
47%
level
26%
Mighty Barrolle scores more
27%

Fassell at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fassell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
T. Sackor
53'
D. Kollie
73'
D. Kollie
78'
A. Damagyie
90+2'
Robin
90+5'
M. Yallah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Fassell 6–0 Mighty Barrolle

Fassell beat Mighty Barrolle 6-0 in LFA First Division on December 8, 2024.

Goals: T. Sackor (6'), D. Kollie (53', 73'), A. Damagyie (78'), Robin (90+2'), M. Yallah (90+5').

The match was played at Doris Williams Stadium in Buchanan.