Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mighty Barrolle vs Black Man Warrior — LFA First Division 2020

Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
FT
0 – 2
Black Man Warrior
Black Man Warrior
4/17/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 25D. Tweh Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mighty Barrolle43%
×Draw25%
Black Man Warrior32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mighty Barrolle
1.50
Black Man Warrior
1.25

Mighty Barrolle creates 20% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 27 away

creates per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.74
Black Man Warrior
0.85

allows per match

Mighty Barrolle
1.66
Black Man Warrior
1.26

finishing

Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par
Black Man Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Barrolle ↓

Black Man Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mighty Barrolle or draw
68%
Mighty Barrolle or Black Man Warrior
75%
Draw or Black Man Warrior
57%

Winning margin

Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
21%
Black Man Warrior wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
78%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
44%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
19%
Black Man Warrior 1+ goals
71%
Black Man Warrior 2+ goals
36%
Black Man Warrior 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
58%
Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Barrolle at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Black Man Warrior away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.74 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.50

Black Man Warrior attack 0.85 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mighty Barrolle scores more
43%
level
25%
Black Man Warrior scores more
32%

Mighty Barrolle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mighty Barrolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mighty Barrolle vs Black Man Warrior

Black Man Warrior beat Mighty Barrolle 2-0 in LFA First Division on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at D. Tweh Field in Monrovia.