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Black Man Warrior vs Mighty Barrolle — LFA First Division 2020

Black Man Warrior
Black Man Warrior
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mighty Barrolle
Mighty Barrolle
12/1/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 12D. Tweh Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Black Man Warrior34%
×Draw26%
Mighty Barrolle39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Man Warrior
1.25
Mighty Barrolle
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 61 away

creates per match

Black Man Warrior
1.08
Mighty Barrolle
1.48

allows per match

Black Man Warrior
1.23
Mighty Barrolle
1.41

finishing

Black Man Warrior+0.00on par
Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Man Warrior ↓

Mighty Barrolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Black Man Warrior or draw
61%
Black Man Warrior or Mighty Barrolle
74%
Draw or Mighty Barrolle
66%

Winning margin

Black Man Warrior wins by 2+
15%
Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Black Man Warrior 1+ goals
71%
Black Man Warrior 2+ goals
36%
Black Man Warrior 3+ goals
13%
Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals
74%
Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals
39%
Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)
47%
Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Man Warrior at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Mighty Barrolle away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Man Warrior attack 1.08 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.48 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Black Man Warrior scores more
34%
level
26%
Mighty Barrolle scores more
39%

Mighty Barrolle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mighty Barrolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Black Man Warrior 1–1 Mighty Barrolle

Black Man Warrior and Mighty Barrolle drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at D. Tweh Field in Monrovia.