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Mieszko Gniezno vs Gwardia Koszalin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
FT
0 – 1
Gwardia Koszalin
Gwardia Koszalin
5/15/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mieszko Gniezno14%
×Draw19%
Gwardia Koszalin67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mieszko Gniezno
0.88
Gwardia Koszalin
2.17

Gwardia Koszalin creates 147% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mieszko Gniezno
0.47
Gwardia Koszalin
1.35

allows per match

Mieszko Gniezno
3.00
Gwardia Koszalin
1.29

finishing

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par
Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mieszko Gniezno ↓

Gwardia Koszalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mieszko Gniezno or draw
33%
Mieszko Gniezno or Gwardia Koszalin
81%
Draw or Gwardia Koszalin
86%

Winning margin

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
4%
Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
59%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
22%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
6%
Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals
89%
Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals
64%
Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
17%
Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mieszko Gniezno at home — creates 0.47, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Gwardia Koszalin away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.47 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.88

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.35 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Mieszko Gniezno scores more
14%
level
19%
Gwardia Koszalin scores more
67%

Gwardia Koszalin at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Gwardia Koszalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mieszko Gniezno vs Gwardia Koszalin

Gwardia Koszalin beat Mieszko Gniezno 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno in Gniezno.