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Gwardia Koszalin vs Mieszko Gniezno — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Gwardia Koszalin
Gwardia Koszalin
FT
2 – 0
Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
3/6/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Stadion im. Stanisława Figasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwardia Koszalin71%
×Draw16%
Mieszko Gniezno13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwardia Koszalin
2.68
Mieszko Gniezno
1.08

Gwardia Koszalin creates 148% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gwardia Koszalin
1.12
Mieszko Gniezno
0.41

allows per match

Gwardia Koszalin
1.76
Mieszko Gniezno
4.24

finishing

Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par
Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwardia Koszalin ↓

Mieszko Gniezno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Gwardia Koszalin or draw
87%
Gwardia Koszalin or Mieszko Gniezno
84%
Draw or Mieszko Gniezno
29%

Winning margin

Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+
49%
Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals
93%
Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals
74%
Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals
49%
Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
66%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
29%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)
84%
Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwardia Koszalin at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Mieszko Gniezno away — creates 0.41, concedes 4.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.12 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 2.68

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.41 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Gwardia Koszalin scores more
71%
level
16%
Mieszko Gniezno scores more
13%

Gwardia Koszalin at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Gwardia Koszalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Gwardia Koszalin 2–0 Mieszko Gniezno

Gwardia Koszalin beat Mieszko Gniezno 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Stanisława Figasa in Koszalin.