Mieszko Gniezno 1–1 Flota Świnoujście

Mieszko Gniezno

FT

1 – 1

Flota Świnoujście

5/1/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mieszko Gniezno17%

×Draw20%

Flota Świnoujście64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mieszko GnieznoExpected goals in this matchFlota Świnoujście

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

2.19

Mieszko Gniezno

1.02

Flota Świnoujście

2.19

Flota Świnoujście creates 115% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

0.47

creates per match

1.38

3.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Mieszko Gniezno

0.47

Flota Świnoujście

1.38

allows per match

Mieszko Gniezno

3.00

Flota Świnoujście

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mieszko Gniezno ↓

Flota Świnoujście →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Mieszko Gniezno or draw

36%

Mieszko Gniezno or Flota Świnoujście

80%

Draw or Flota Świnoujście

83%

Winning margin

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+

6%

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals

64%

Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals

27%

Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals

8%

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals

89%

Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals

64%

Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)

21%

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mieszko Gniezno at home — creates 0.47, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Flota Świnoujście away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.47 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.02

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.38 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mieszko Gniezno scores more

17%

level

20%

Flota Świnoujście scores more

64%

Flota Świnoujście at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Flota Świnoujście will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff