Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Flota Świnoujście vs Mieszko Gniezno — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Flota Świnoujście
Flota Świnoujście
FT
4 – 2
Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
8/15/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Flota Świnoujście73%
×Draw15%
Mieszko Gniezno12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flota Świnoujście
2.82
Mieszko Gniezno
1.06

Flota Świnoujście creates 166% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Flota Świnoujście
1.40
Mieszko Gniezno
0.41

allows per match

Flota Świnoujście
1.72
Mieszko Gniezno
4.24

finishing

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par
Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flota Świnoujście ↓

Mieszko Gniezno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Flota Świnoujście or draw
88%
Flota Świnoujście or Mieszko Gniezno
85%
Draw or Mieszko Gniezno
27%

Winning margin

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+
53%
Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals
94%
Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals
77%
Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals
52%
Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
65%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
29%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)
86%
Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flota Świnoujście at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

Mieszko Gniezno away — creates 0.41, concedes 4.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.40 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 2.82

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.41 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Flota Świnoujście scores more
73%
level
15%
Mieszko Gniezno scores more
12%

Flota Świnoujście at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Flota Świnoujście will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flota Świnoujście vs Mieszko Gniezno

Flota Świnoujście beat Mieszko Gniezno 4-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Świnoujście.