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Mieszko Gniezno vs Chemik Police — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
FT
1 – 1
Chemik Police
Chemik Police
11/7/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mieszko Gniezno35%
×Draw22%
Chemik Police43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mieszko Gniezno
1.73
Chemik Police
1.94

Chemik Police creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mieszko Gniezno
0.47
Chemik Police
0.88

allows per match

Mieszko Gniezno
3.00
Chemik Police
3.00

finishing

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par
Chemik Police+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mieszko Gniezno ↓

Chemik Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Mieszko Gniezno or draw
57%
Mieszko Gniezno or Chemik Police
78%
Draw or Chemik Police
65%

Winning margin

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
18%
Chemik Police wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
82%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
52%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
25%
Chemik Police 1+ goals
86%
Chemik Police 2+ goals
58%
Chemik Police 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
45%
Chemik Police (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mieszko Gniezno at home — creates 0.47, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Chemik Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.47 + Chemik Police defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Chemik Police attack 0.88 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mieszko Gniezno scores more
35%
level
22%
Chemik Police scores more
43%

Chemik Police at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chemik Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mieszko Gniezno vs Chemik Police

Mieszko Gniezno and Chemik Police drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Mieszko Gniezno in Gniezno.