Chemik Police 3–1 Mieszko Gniezno: Result & Stats

Chemik Police

FT

3 – 1

Mieszko Gniezno

6/6/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chemik Police58%

×Draw19%

Mieszko Gniezno23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemik PoliceExpected goals in this matchMieszko Gniezno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.53

Chemik Police

2.50

Mieszko Gniezno

1.53

Chemik Police creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.76

creates per match

0.41

2.65

allows per match

4.24

creates per match

Chemik Police

0.76

Mieszko Gniezno

0.41

allows per match

Chemik Police

2.65

Mieszko Gniezno

4.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemik Police+0.00on par

Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemik Police ↓

Mieszko Gniezno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Chemik Police or draw

77%

Chemik Police or Mieszko Gniezno

81%

Draw or Mieszko Gniezno

42%

Winning margin

Chemik Police wins by 2+

37%

Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chemik Police 1+ goals

92%

Chemik Police 2+ goals

71%

Chemik Police 3+ goals

45%

Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals

78%

Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals

45%

Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Chemik Police (draw refunded)

72%

Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemik Police at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Mieszko Gniezno away — creates 0.41, concedes 4.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemik Police attack 0.76 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 2.50

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.41 + Chemik Police defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chemik Police scores more

58%

level

19%

Mieszko Gniezno scores more

23%

Chemik Police at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chemik Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff