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Miedz Legnica vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2018

Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
12/17/2018EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 19Stadion im. Orla Bialego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Miedz Legnica36%
×Draw25%
Lechia Gdansk39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedz Legnica
1.37
Lechia Gdansk
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 120 away

creates per match

Miedz Legnica
1.06
Lechia Gdansk
1.27

allows per match

Miedz Legnica
1.61
Lechia Gdansk
1.68

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par
Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw
61%
Miedz Legnica or Lechia Gdansk
75%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
64%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
16%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
75%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
40%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
16%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
76%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
42%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
48%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.06 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.37

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.27 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more
36%
level
25%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
39%

Lechia Gdansk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Miedz Legnica 0–0 Lechia Gdansk

Miedz Legnica and Lechia Gdansk drew 0-0 in Ekstraklasa on December 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion im. Orla Bialego in Legnica.