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Lechia Gdansk vs Miedz Legnica — Ekstraklasa 2018

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
3/10/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 24Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Lechia Gdansk50%
×Draw25%
Miedz Legnica25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.63
Miedz Legnica
1.08

Lechia Gdansk creates 51% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 35 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.48
Miedz Legnica
1.00

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.16
Miedz Legnica
1.77

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par
Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Miedz Legnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
75%
Lechia Gdansk or Miedz Legnica
75%
Draw or Miedz Legnica
50%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
26%
Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
80%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
48%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
22%
Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
66%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
29%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
67%
Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 120 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.63

Miedz Legnica attack 1.00 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
50%
level
25%
Miedz Legnica scores more
25%

Lechia Gdansk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Lechia Gdansk 4–0 Miedz Legnica

Lechia Gdansk beat Miedz Legnica 4-0 in Ekstraklasa on March 10, 2023.

The match was played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Gdańsk.