Miedz Legnica 0–2 Górnik Łęczna: Result & Stats

Miedz Legnica

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Górnik Łęczna

4/20/2026

I Liga · Round 29Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Miedz Legnica47%

×Draw25%

Górnik Łęczna27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedz LegnicaExpected goals in this matchGórnik Łęczna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.14

Miedz Legnica

1.58

Górnik Łęczna

1.14

Miedz Legnica creates 39% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 86 away

1.83

creates per match

1.13

1.15

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Miedz Legnica

1.83

Górnik Łęczna

1.13

allows per match

Miedz Legnica

1.15

Górnik Łęczna

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Górnik Łęczna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw

73%

Miedz Legnica or Górnik Łęczna

75%

Draw or Górnik Łęczna

53%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

24%

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

79%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

47%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

21%

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals

68%

Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals

32%

Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

63%

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 102 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.83 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.13 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more

47%

level

25%

Górnik Łęczna scores more

27%

Miedz Legnica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff