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Górnik Łęczna vs Miedz Legnica — I Liga 2018

Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
9/15/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 9Bogdanka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Górnik Łęczna39%
×Draw27%
Miedz Legnica34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Łęczna
1.27
Miedz Legnica
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 105 away

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.35
Miedz Legnica
1.23

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.11
Miedz Legnica
1.18

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par
Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Miedz Legnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw
66%
Górnik Łęczna or Miedz Legnica
73%
Draw or Miedz Legnica
61%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
17%
Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
72%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
36%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
14%
Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
69%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
33%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
53%
Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.35 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Miedz Legnica attack 1.23 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more
39%
level
27%
Miedz Legnica scores more
34%

Górnik Łęczna at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Górnik Łęczna 1–2 Miedz Legnica

Miedz Legnica beat Górnik Łęczna 2-1 in I Liga on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Bogdanka Arena in Łęczna.