Miedz Legnica 1–1 Cracovia Krakow: Result & Stats

Miedz Legnica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cracovia Krakow

Á. Henríquez 52'

J. Myszor 35'

10/16/2022

Ekstraklasa · Round 13Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Miedz Legnica32%

×Draw27%

Cracovia Krakow41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedz LegnicaExpected goals in this matchCracovia Krakow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.33

Miedz Legnica

1.16

Cracovia Krakow

1.33

Cracovia Krakow creates 15% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 130 away

1.00

creates per match

1.06

1.60

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Miedz Legnica

1.00

Cracovia Krakow

1.06

allows per match

Miedz Legnica

1.60

Cracovia Krakow

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Cracovia Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Cracovia Krakow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw

59%

Miedz Legnica or Cracovia Krakow

73%

Draw or Cracovia Krakow

68%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

13%

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

69%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

32%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

11%

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals

74%

Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals

38%

Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

44%

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.32 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.00 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.06 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more

32%

level

27%

Cracovia Krakow scores more

41%

Cracovia Krakow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Á. Henríquez

Miedz Legnica · F

7.5

Match Events

32'

Mathias Hebo Rasmussen

35'

J. Myszor

45'

Michal Siplak

46'

H. Matynia← Jon Aurtenetxe

48'

Levent Gülen

51'

Virgil Ghiță

52'

Á. Henríquez↳ N. Mijušković

59'

J. Jugas← M. Sipľak

59'

F. Loshaj← K. Knap

62'

Florian Loshaj

67'

M. Lehaire← M. Dominguez

67'

L. Narsingh← O. Kobacki

67'

J. Cacciabue← S. Naveda

68'

M. Rakoczy← J. Myszor

68'

Y. Konoplyanka← P. Makuch

72'

M. Kostka← C. Julio Martínez

73'

Michael Kostka

84'

D. Jablonský← M. Rodin

90+3'

Luciano Narsingh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiedzCracovia

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots9

4Corners1

12Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots9

1On Target2

8Off Target3

2Blocked4

5Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

347Total Passes435

229Accurate Passes314

66%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2