Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 35+ matches
Miedz Legnica32%
Cracovia Krakow41%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cracovia Krakow creates 15% more chances
Season form · 35 home / 130 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Miedz Legnica ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches
Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.32 · 130 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Miedz Legnica attack 1.00 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16
Cracovia Krakow attack 1.06 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Cracovia Krakow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Radomiak Radom
Legia Warszawa
Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice
GKS Katowice
Motor Lublin
Slask Wroclaw
Wisla Plock
Wisla Krakow
Lech Poznan
Zaglebie LubinCracovia Krakow
Widzew Łódź
Raków Częstochowa
Wieczysta Kraków
Pogon SzczecinIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
Miedz Legnica host Cracovia Krakow on Friday, 5 April 2019 at 18:30. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow
Miedz Legnica beat Cracovia Krakow 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on April 5, 2019.
Goals: A. Pikk (36'), Juan Cámara (41'), F. Piszczek (62').
Cracovia Krakow controlled possession (65%) and registered 11 shots to 11.
The match was played at Stadion im. Orla Bialego in Legnica.