Miedź Legnica II 1–6 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Miedź Legnica II

FT

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 1

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Onuru 7'

D. Jarka 86'

K. Stanek 82' (pen), 52'

N. Jaszczak 72' (pen), 54' (pen)

M. Mielczarek 11'

5/22/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 30Akademii Piłkarskiej Miedzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Miedź Legnica II48%

×Draw22%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedź Legnica IIExpected goals in this matchGwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.50

Miedź Legnica II

1.93

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.50

Miedź Legnica II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 69 away

2.02

creates per match

1.39

1.62

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Miedź Legnica II

2.02

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.39

allows per match

Miedź Legnica II

1.62

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedź Legnica II ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Miedź Legnica II or draw

70%

Miedź Legnica II or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

78%

Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

52%

Winning margin

Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+

27%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals

85%

Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals

57%

Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals

30%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

78%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

44%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)

61%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedź Legnica II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedź Legnica II attack 2.02 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.93

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Miedź Legnica II scores more

48%

level

22%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

30%

Miedź Legnica II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Miedź Legnica II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Onuru

11'

M. Mielczarek

52'

K. Stanek

54'

N. JaszczakPenalty

72'

N. JaszczakPenalty

82'

K. StanekPenalty

86'

D. Jarka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff