Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 4–1 Miedź Legnica II

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Miedź Legnica II

M. Biskup 56', 43', 4'

B. Czuban 26'

M. Graham 51'

8/20/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry44%

×Draw24%

Miedź Legnica II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwarek Tarnowskie GóryExpected goals in this matchMiedź Legnica II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.35

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.61

Miedź Legnica II

1.35

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 19% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 86 away

1.49

creates per match

1.26

1.45

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.49

Miedź Legnica II

1.26

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.45

Miedź Legnica II

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Miedź Legnica II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw

68%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Miedź Legnica II

76%

Draw or Miedź Legnica II

56%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

22%

Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

80%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

48%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

22%

Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals

74%

Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals

39%

Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

58%

Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Miedź Legnica II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Miedź Legnica II attack 1.26 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

44%

level

24%

Miedź Legnica II scores more

32%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Biskup

26'

B. Czuban

43'

M. Biskup

51'

M. Graham

56'

M. Biskup

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff