Miedź Legnica II 6–2 Górnik Polkowice

Miedź Legnica II

FT

6 – 2

Górnik Polkowice

10/4/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Akademii Piłkarskiej Miedzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Miedź Legnica II40%

×Draw23%

Górnik Polkowice36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedź Legnica IIExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.58

Miedź Legnica II

1.68

Górnik Polkowice

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

2.02

creates per match

1.55

1.62

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Miedź Legnica II

2.02

Górnik Polkowice

1.55

allows per match

Miedź Legnica II

1.62

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedź Legnica II ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Miedź Legnica II or draw

64%

Miedź Legnica II or Górnik Polkowice

77%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

60%

Winning margin

Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+

21%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals

81%

Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals

50%

Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals

24%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

79%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

47%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)

53%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedź Legnica II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedź Legnica II attack 2.02 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.68

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Miedź Legnica II scores more

40%

level

23%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

36%

Miedź Legnica II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Miedź Legnica II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff