Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Górnik Polkowice vs Miedź Legnica II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Miedź Legnica II
Miedź Legnica II
M. Surozynski 87' (pen)
M. Stawny 52'
J. Ratajczak 15'
D. Klich 90', 76'
F. Zur 59'
3/28/2026III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 24Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Górnik Polkowice48%
×Draw24%
Miedź Legnica II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.73
Miedź Legnica II
1.26

Górnik Polkowice creates 37% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 86 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.72
Miedź Legnica II
1.26

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.26
Miedź Legnica II
1.74

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Miedź Legnica II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
72%
Górnik Polkowice or Miedź Legnica II
76%
Draw or Miedź Legnica II
52%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
26%
Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
82%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
52%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
25%
Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals
72%
Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals
36%
Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
63%
Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Miedź Legnica II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.73

Miedź Legnica II attack 1.26 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
48%
level
24%
Miedź Legnica II scores more
28%

Górnik Polkowice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
J. Ratajczak
52'
M. Stawny
59'
F. Zur
76'
D. Klich
87'
M. SurozynskiPenalty
90'
D. Klich

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Górnik Polkowice 3–3 Miedź Legnica II

Górnik Polkowice and Miedź Legnica II drew 3-3 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 28, 2026.

Goals: J. Ratajczak (15'), M. Stawny (52'), F. Zur (59'), D. Klich (76', 90'), M. Surozynski (87' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.