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Miedź Legnica II vs Gać Oława — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Miedź Legnica II
Miedź Legnica II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Gać Oława
Gać Oława
6/15/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Akademii Piłkarskiej Miedzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Miedź Legnica II59%
×Draw20%
Gać Oława21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedź Legnica II
2.29
Gać Oława
1.31

Miedź Legnica II creates 75% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

creates per match

Miedź Legnica II
2.02
Gać Oława
1.00

allows per match

Miedź Legnica II
1.62
Gać Oława
2.57

finishing

Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par
Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedź Legnica II ↓

Gać Oława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Miedź Legnica II or draw
79%
Miedź Legnica II or Gać Oława
80%
Draw or Gać Oława
41%

Winning margin

Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+
37%
Gać Oława wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals
90%
Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals
66%
Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals
40%
Gać Oława 1+ goals
73%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
38%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)
74%
Gać Oława (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedź Legnica II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedź Legnica II attack 2.02 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Miedź Legnica II scores more
59%
level
20%
Gać Oława scores more
21%

Miedź Legnica II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Miedź Legnica II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Miedź Legnica II 2–3 Gać Oława

Gać Oława beat Miedź Legnica II 3-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on June 15, 2022.

The match was played at Akademii Piłkarskiej Miedzi in Legnica.