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Gać Oława vs Miedź Legnica II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gać Oława
Gać Oława
FT
2 – 2
Miedź Legnica II
Miedź Legnica II
M. Przybylski 68'
L. Orzechowski 55'
K. Gardzielewicz 83'
B. Garcia 77'
5/8/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 30Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gać Oława34%
×Draw23%
Miedź Legnica II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gać Oława
1.52
Miedź Legnica II
1.75

Miedź Legnica II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 86 away

creates per match

Gać Oława
1.29
Miedź Legnica II
1.26

allows per match

Gać Oława
2.23
Miedź Legnica II
1.74

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par
Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

Miedź Legnica II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw
57%
Gać Oława or Miedź Legnica II
77%
Draw or Miedź Legnica II
66%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+
16%
Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals
78%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
45%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
20%
Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals
83%
Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals
52%
Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)
44%
Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Miedź Legnica II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Miedź Legnica II attack 1.26 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gać Oława scores more
34%
level
23%
Miedź Legnica II scores more
43%

Miedź Legnica II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Miedź Legnica II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
L. Orzechowski
68'
M. Przybylski
77'
B. Garcia
83'
K. Gardzielewicz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gać Oława 2–2 Miedź Legnica II

Gać Oława and Miedź Legnica II drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 8, 2021.

Goals: L. Orzechowski (55'), M. Przybylski (68'), B. Garcia (77'), K. Gardzielewicz (83').

The match was played at Stadion w Gaciu in Gać.